While the general opinion is that if there were snap elections in Perak, Pakatan will win hands down, with lengths of daylight being second, and BN being a motherless last.
But closer observations suggest otherwise.
BN, with the instruments and institutions of power, will not fight a clean fight.
In fact the dirty tactics may go beyond gutter level. BN has some powerful dirty cards it can play to stun Pakatan and instil fear in voters.
1) BN can engineer a whisper campaign that the sultan will not endorse Nizar as MB even if PR wins and he has majority state assembly numbers. Legally, the sultan needn’t.
2) BN can say without Nizar Perak will be led by a socialist DAP with more reps than PKR and Pas combined.
3) Using (1) and (2), BN has the potential to convince enough Malay voters to swing to make a very big difference.
If this happens a number of DAP-held seats with wafer thin majorities will fall.
So would some for PKR and Pas.
This could lead to a 50-50 fight for the right to rule.
I could be wrong. But I could also be right. I hope I am not.
Perak may not be cakewalk for Pakatan